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Forecasting International Tourists Footfalls in India: An Assortment of Competing Models

The Article, Published by Purna Chandra Padhan in International Journal of Business and Management, 6(5), 2011, 190-202, 2012

The paper deals with forecasting international tourists footfalls in India, applying an assortment of uni-variate time series forecasting models, for monthly data spreading over Dec 1990 to Jan 2010. The forecasting performance of various competing models is evaluated with MAPE and other criteria. Also the actual and forecasted values are compared since Feb 2010 to Sept 2010 for better evaluation. The SARIMA model performs better than other competing model for forecasting, with lowest MAPE value. In fact it has an advantage over other models as it explicates autoregressive and moving average process not only for the data series but also of seasonality. As a policy implication, SARIMA model can be used for forecasting tourists demand in India.